基于单颗粒质谱信息气溶胶分类方法的研究进展

气溶胶质谱仪在对气溶胶颗粒的监测过程中会产生大量单颗粒的化学成分和粒径信息,基于这些质谱数据能够推测颗粒的来源。而对气溶胶来源的分析,很大程度上是由颗粒的种类决定的,故对海量数据的分类就成为不可忽略的步骤。针对气溶胶质谱仪采集到的数据,概述了用于气溶胶分类的多种方法的理论核心、分类步骤及各自的优缺点等。据此可为今后气溶胶分类方法的研究提供建设性意见。     

四川红层浅层风化带裂隙水水化学特征的聚类分析

四川红层盆地浅层风化带裂隙水是区内分布最为广泛和目前开采最多的浅层地下水类型,本文通过对大量控制性水样分析结果进行聚类分析,探讨了该地区浅层风化带裂隙水的水化学成分特征及其分布规律,结果表明区内91%以上的浅层风化带裂隙水为HCO3-型淡水,主要分布在中部方山丘陵小区、南部台状低山丘陵小区和东部侵蚀构造平行岭谷低山丘陵小区。该研究可为开发利用浅层地下水提供地学依据。     

珠江下游河段沉积物中重金属含量及污染评价

为了解珠江下游出海河道沉积物中重金属含量及各污染物的潜在生态危害程度,用电感耦合等离子质谱法和原子荧光法测定了21个样点沉积物中13种元素的总量,及对底泥中主要重金属污染状况和潜在生态风险进行了评价.结果表明,珠江下游河道总Fe、总Mn含量分别为41 658.73 mg.kg-1和1 104.73 mg.kg-1,微量元素Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn、As、Se、Cd、Sb、Pb和Hg的平均值分别为86.62、18.18、54.10、80.20、543.60、119.55、4.28、10.60、20.26、104.58和0.520 mg.kg-1,地积累指数评价结果显示,表层沉积物重金属污染程度顺序为：Cd〉As≈Zn〉Hg〉Pb≈Cu≈Cr,潜在生态风险程度大小顺序：Cd〉Hg〉As〉Cu〉Pb〉Zn〉Cr,Cd是该水域污染和潜在生态风险最大的元素,单项潜在生态风险与区域综合潜在生态风险一致.珠江下游河道底泥Cd、Hg和Pb污染受输入影响北江大于西江和东江.聚类分析结果表明,研究站位潜在生态风险可分5类,基本反映了站位分布及沉积物环境污染变化特征.总体而言,重金属污染和生态风险程度较高的江段有陈村-沙湾段、陈村-顺德港段及外海-虎跳门段,北江及相关河道污染程度和潜在生态风险指数高于区域其他江段.     

谱系聚类法在小区域粮食安全预测中的应用——以昆山市为例

粮食安全对国民经济的可持续发展起着不可替代的基础性作用,小区域由于受政策因素的影响较大,粮食安全相关指标的变化呈一定阶段性,长时间序列的数学规律并不突出,不利于规划工作的展开。论文基于昆山市的研究,提出谱系聚类与数学模型相结合的基本思路,在此基础上推出了聚类结果有效性的量化判定标准并对聚类法运用准则做了深入的探讨。实际数据分析结果表明:昆山的粮食安全相关的社会经济指标变化确实呈明显阶段性;与利用全部时间序列数据建立的模型相比,运用谱系聚类的模型拟合和预测效果都有明显优势;至2015年,昆山市粮食自给率将下降至6%,最小人均耕地面积降低至0.022 hm²。通过进一步的分析、对比及讨论,文章认为,谱系聚类法运用于小区域粮食安全预测,方法可操作性强,结论科学性显著。     

中国旅游业空间集聚与集群化发展研究

旅游产业集聚与集群是联系密切而又有明显区别的一组概念,旅游产业集聚是集群形成的前提,但旅游产业集聚不一定形成集群,影响旅游产业空间集聚和集群发展的因素较多。选择行业集中度、基尼系数、赫芬代尔系数等指标,以相关数据为依据,探讨了中国旅游业的空间集聚问题,指出中国旅游业具有明显的空间集中分布与分散相结合的集聚特征。分析了中国旅游业集群发展现状与存在的问题并提出了相应对策,认为我国旅游业集群化发展是非常必要而且有可能的。     

云贵高原湖区湖泊营养物生态分区技术方法研究

提出一种基于主成分分析、聚类分析、判别分析和空间自相关的分区模型,用于对云贵高原湖区湖泊营养物生态分区的研究.首先运用主成分分析方法对众多指标进行了降维综合处理,产生彼此互补相关又能综合反映湖区情况的4个新指标,累计贡献率达到93.69%,具有充分的代表性,构建了云贵高原湖区湖泊营养物生态分区指标体系.在此基础上,根据各区域新指标值,结合聚类模型初步将湖泊流域分为5类,再利用判别分析完成非湖泊流域的类别判别,最后运用空间自相关分析方法,按聚类结果进行全局自相关分析,Moran’sI为0.320,且检验值Z值为68.2,远大于临界值(显著水平1%所对应的临界值2.58),表明聚类结果与空间位置具有显著相关性,之后运用局部自相关对区域各因素的主成分综合得分的空间分布格局进行了量化分析,揭示了零散分类区块在空间地域分布上的关联和差异,根据关联结果完成最终的分区.结果表明,利用此分区模型可以尽量避免人为因素,得到更为客观的分区结果,具有良好的适应性和可行性,可为探索适合我国湖泊营养物生态分区的指标体系和分区技术方法,完成全国湖泊营养物生态分区和科学地制定我国湖泊营养物基准和富营养化控制标准提供技术支持.     

Fast increasing of surface ozone concentrations in Pearl River Delta characterized by a regional air quality monitoring network during 2006-2011

Based on the observation by a Regional Air Quality Monitoring Network including 16 monitoring stations, temporal and spatial variations of ozone(O3), NO2and total oxidant(Ox) were analyzed by both linear regression and cluster analysis. A fast increase of regional O3concentrations of 0.86 ppbV/yr was found for the annual averaged values from 2006 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Such fast O3increase is accompanied by a correspondingly fast NOx reduction as indicated by a fast NO2 reduction rate of 0.61 ppbV/yr. Based on a cluster analysis, the monitoring stations were classified into two major categories – rural stations(non-urban) and suburban/urban stations. The O3concentrations at rural stations were relatively conserved while those at suburban/urban stations showed a fast increase rate of 2.0 ppbV/yr accompanied by a NO2 reduction rate of 1.2 ppbV/yr. Moreover, a rapid increase of the averaged O3 concentrations in springtime(13%/yr referred to 2006 level) was observed, which may result from the increase of solar duration, reduction of precipitation in Guangdong and transport from Eastern Central China. Application of smog production algorithm showed that the photochemical O3production is mainly volatile organic compounds(VOC)-controlled. However, the photochemical O3production is sensitive to both NOx and VOC for O3pollution episode. Accordingly, it is expected that a combined NOx and VOC reduction will be helpful for the reduction of the O3 pollution episodes in Pearl River Delta while stringent VOC emission control is in general required for the regional O3 pollution control.     

旅游产业园：理论模式与实践发展

旅游产业集群式发展成为新的发展趋势和现实要求,但目前国内仍存在多种发展模式。笔者认为,旅游产业园应特别突出旅游产业特色,既要考虑传统的观光度假功能,更应考虑上下游的旅游装备研发制造、旅游商品研发生产、旅游产品营销推广等各个环节。以鄱阳湖生态旅游产业园为例,分析了该产业发展模式的建设背景、战略意义、发展定位和建设内容。     

A Multilevel Model of the Impact of Farm‐Level Best Management Practices on Phosphorus Runoff1

Abstract: Multilevel or hierarchical models have been applied for a number of years in the social sciences but only relatively recently in the environmental sciences. These models can be developed in either a frequentist or Bayesian context and have similarities to other methods such as empirical Bayes analysis and random coefficients regression. In essence, multilevel models take advantage of the hierarchical structure that exists in many multivariate datasets; for example, water quality measurements may be taken from individual lakes, lakes are located in various climatic zones, lakes may be natural or man‐made, and so on. The groups, or levels, may effectively yield different responses or behaviors (e.g., nutrient load response in lakes) that often make retaining group membership more effective when developing a predictive model than when working with either all of the data together or working separately with the individuals. Here, we develop a multilevel model of the impact of farm level best management practices (BMPs) on phosphorus runoff. The result of this research is a model with parameters which vary with key practice categories and thus may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of these practices on phosphorus runoff. For example, it was found that the effect of fertilizer application rate on farm‐scale phosphorus loss is a function of the application method, the hydrologic soil group, and the land use (crop type). Further, results indicate that the most effective method for controlling fertilizer loss is through soil injection. In summary, the resultant multilevel model can be used to estimate phosphorus loss from farms and hence serve as a useful tool for BMP selection.     

汉江堵河流域地表水质时空变化特征

对汉江堵河流域9个点位为期1年的地表水水质理化特性进行时空特征分析，应用〖WTBX〗t〖WTBZ〗检验进行水质季节性变化分析，聚类分析进行空间相似性分析以确定空间尺度的分类情况，判别分析识别显著性指标，并以此反映上述空间聚类分析结果的差异性。结果表明:①Cl-、总溶解性固体（TDS）及浊度（Turbidity） 3项指标没有表现出显著的时间差异性；②温度、pH、NO-3、TP表现为丰水季显著大于枯水季，而SO2-4、HCO-3、NH+4、 DO则表现出相反的变化趋势，即枯水季显著大于丰水季；③空间聚类分析将采样点分为4类；④判别分析体现出良好的指标降维能力，仅需4个指标（NO-3、TDS、SO2-4、HCO-3）即可反映整体水质的空间差异性。